With the most recent poll showing the Tories just two points ahead of Labour (YouGov/Sunday Times, 28th Febuary) there is a stark inevitability that the electorate simply do not believe in Cameron and his 'new' Conservatives enough to give him the Parliamentary majority he so obviously craves. Additionally it also shows that Labour is still holding on not out of popularity but out of lack of a real alternative. If the poll was to be translated into an actual election, Labour would remain the largest party but would still need the help of the Liberal Democrats and the other minority parties in Parliament in order to adequately govern. What does that say about the state of contemporary politics? The last time there was a hung parliament was back in 1974, when the then Tory Prime Minister Edward Heath failed to build a coalition government and subsequently lost to Labour in the second General Election of that year.

We are of course witnessing a shift in politics with the main parties failing to make a considerable impact on the frustrated and apathetic electorate. Despite the fact 85% want change, only 37% want that to be a Tory change. What does this mean for the political landscape of the UK? Well it could mean a number of things. Either we will witness a decade or so of coalition governments which can be seen as both negative and positive with either political instability or progressive cooperation occuring, or we can see the collapse of the current consensus and the emergence of a new political era. What I mean by that is if the Conservatives fail to win enough seats to make a workable majority and consquently lose a fourth election, then where will they go from there? I'm not talking about political oblivion or a devastating party civil war (although you never know) but where can that party go if it fails to win the centre ground which Cameron has sought to do since becoming leader? A lurch to the right is of course a typical answer and the disposition of Cameron as leader also a likely outcome. But this election and its outcome mean much more than that.

When the Tories last lost government in 1997 when Blair famously decimated the Conservatives and won a 179 seat majority, there was no real alternative to the Conservatives that was in any place electorally to usurp them as the predominant centre-right political force. 2010 is a different matter. The UK Independence Party I firmly believe, will eventually usurp the Conservatives once they fail; either in government or once again in opposition. Yes, the party as of yet do not have any elected MPs in Westminster and do not currently run any local councils or authorities but everything has to start from somewhere and gradually build up and expand. The Labour Party for example took 45 years to win a General Election and itself started off as a working-class pressure group.

Since UKIP's formation in 1993, the party has gone on to beat the Labour government in the 2009 European Elections taking 2.5 million votes. In the 2005 General Election it is believed UKIP cost the Tories 30 seats and this General Election it is predicted UKIP could cost them nearly 80. Pretty impressive record so far considering how long the party has been around for. So what I am saying is that UKIP, whether Cameron wins or not will breakthrough perhaps not at this election, but almost certainly in 2014/15 and 2019/2020. Just as Labour usurped and electorally wiped out the Liberal Party in 1918, so UKIP will to the Conservatives. Now that is not to say UKIP is comprised soley of Ex-Tories or Conservative voters, far from it. The UK Independence Party is comprised of people from across the political spectrum, I for one being a classical Liberal and social Libertarian. I predict that eventually, UKIP will take seats from all the parties because we believe in more than just policy pledges or ideological stances.

We believe in national independence and sovereignty; in individual liberty and freedoms; in lower taxes and efficient government; in a strong defence and cost-effective healthcare; in excellence in education and innovation in enterprise. These beliefs represent the entire electorate in one way or another and UKIP will, eventually, win and prove to all how Britain can really be. Change comes at times slowly and gradually and takes determination and hard effort for it to succeed. The new political era will come and we are currently seeing the seeds of this beginning to grow. There is an alternative out there that offers real, radical policies for an electorate tired of the Labour/Tory swing. The UK Independence Party is on the up, is ready for a fight and ready to win.

- Jake Ellett